← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 17% | 23% | 5.83 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 335.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1558.42 | 1520.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.73 | -27.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |