← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 39% | 38% | 2.52 | fair |
| Girona win | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Mario Suárez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 30' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 60' | 🟥 | Abdoulaye Ba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Emiliano Velazquez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Girona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 85' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1513.30 | 1545.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.45 | -17.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |