← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 67% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | 5.29 | value: +17% |
| Levante UD win | 15% | 16% | 6.48 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 60' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 68' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pedro López · Levante UD |
| 84' | 🟨 | Antonio Luna · Levante UD |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 86' | 🟥 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 88' | 🟥 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 360.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1577.18 | 1799.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.50 | 24.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.18 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |