← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 62% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 13% | 12% | 7.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 66' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 2642.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1801.69 | 1626.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.50 | 34.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |