← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 40% | 37% | 2.47 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 32% | 37% | 3.02 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 60' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 47.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1677.35 | 1775.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.64 | -2.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 28.84 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |