← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.03 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 15% | 18% | 6.59 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 74' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 745.00 | 2634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1522.69 | 1797.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.10 | -17.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 23.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |