← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Leganes win | 25% | 22% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 77.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1620.02 | 1563.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.34 | 36.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.50 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |