← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 56% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.06 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 40' | ⚽ | Coke · Levante UD |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 49' | 🟥 | Ryad Boudebouz · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Levante UD |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Brais Méndez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 291.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1551.51 | 1556.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.80 | -12.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.83 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 23.12 | — |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |