← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 46% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.38 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 26% | 31% | 3.79 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 44' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 48' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 65' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | 🟨 | Víctor Laguardia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | 🟨 | Antonio Luna · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jony · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 437.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1583.85 | 1568.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.68 | -2.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |