← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +6% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 23% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Leganes |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mikel Vesga · Leganes |
| 28' | 🟨 | Antonio Barragán · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Leganes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
| 66' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Leganes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Recio · Leganes |
| 80' | 🟥 | Javi García · Real Betis Balompié |
| 89' | 🟨 | Diego Lainez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 254.00 | 650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1627.05 | 1707.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.69 | -9.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 28.53 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 1.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |