← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 18% | 15% | 5.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 68' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 72' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟥 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 71.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1654.85 | 2018.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.54 | 5.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| league points | 26.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 2.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 27.58 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |