← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 48% | 50% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 22% | 22% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Néstor Araujo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | 🟥 | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mathieu Flamini · Getafe CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Costas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 891.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1645.07 | 1560.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.13 | -33.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.01 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |