← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 57% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.89 | value: +4% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 18% | 19% | 5.42 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand