← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 42% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.45 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Santi Cazorla · Villarreal CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 65' | 🟨 | Pablo Hervias · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 313.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1537.09 | 1589.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.29 | -28.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |