← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 46% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 24% | 34% | 4.05 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 643.00 | 2621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1613.77 | 1829.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.30 | 17.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 29.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.83 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.07 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |