← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 38% | 42% | 2.58 | value: +8% |
| Getafe CF win | 33% | 28% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 21' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mathieu Flamini · Getafe CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Getafe CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 338.00 | 884.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1568.26 | 1645.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.14 | 15.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -2.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |