← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 38% | 41% | 2.57 | value: +6% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Pione Sisto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 55' | ⚽ | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 60' | 🟨 | Toni Villa · Valladolid |
| 69' | ⚽ | Keko · Valladolid |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 87' | 🟥 | Wesley Hoedt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 89' | 🟨 | David Juncà · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 301.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1547.68 | 1556.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.25 | -44.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.01 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |