← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 58% | 50% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 17% | 26% | 5.59 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1638.93 | 1873.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.38 | -10.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 24.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 20.74 | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |