← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 46% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 24% | 22% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sidnei · Real Betis Balompié |
| 26' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 50' | 🟨 | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟥 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1652.72 | 1703.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.84 | -1.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 23.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 2.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |