← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 69% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.10 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 12% | 15% | 8.17 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Quincy Promes · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 300.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1696.87 | 1578.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.48 | -10.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |