← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.97 | value: +13% |
| Girona win | 16% | 14% | 5.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Girona |
| 12' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 36' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Girona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Valery Fernández · Girona |
| 44' | ⚽ | Seydou Doumbia · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Sanabria · Real Betis Balompié |
| 54' | ⚽ | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 66' | 🟨 | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Canales · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days | 629.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1616.46 | 1569.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.81 | -15.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.36 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |