← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 79% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.35 | fair |
| Leganes win | 6% | 7% | 16.61 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
| 12' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 22' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Tarin · Leganes |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
| 32' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 54' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · FC Barcelona |
| 57' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
| 60' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.69 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 598.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 2020.20 | 1618.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.47 | 6.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 26.32 |
| state index | 2.07 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.28 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |