← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 73% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.18 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 8% | 5% | 11.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Jason · Levante UD |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 85' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 2600.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1814.24 | 1569.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.78 | -5.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.95 | — |
| state index | 1.20 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |