← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 71% | 73% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.14 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 10% | 10% | 9.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 36' | 🟨 | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟥 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Rubén Pardo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 88' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1791.32 | 1582.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.18 | -33.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 24.38 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |