← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 43% | 30% | 2.29 | fair |
| Huesca win | 30% | 39% | 3.27 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Zouhair Feddal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Sanabria · Real Betis Balompié |
| 73' | ⚽ | David Ferreiro · Huesca |
| 78' | 🟨 | Francis Guerrero · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | ⚽ | Cristian Rivera · Huesca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 96.00 | 614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1485.54 | 1636.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.45 | 26.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 2.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |