← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 44% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
| Girona win | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 28' | 🟨 | Toño · Levante UD |
| 31' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 35' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 56' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 58' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 69' | 🟥 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 72' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Girona |
| 86' | ⚽ | Coke · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 309.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1571.42 | 1568.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.57 | 7.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |