← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 49% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
| Leganes win | 20% | 24% | 4.78 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 20' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dídac Vila · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Recio · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 217.00 | 217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1653.12 | 1619.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.95 | 37.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 20.74 | — |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |