← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 45% | 52% | 2.17 | value: +13% |
| Levante UD win | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 690.00 | 297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 4.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1488.03 | 1582.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.93 | -10.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |