← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 37% | 43% | 2.64 | value: +13% |
| Leganes win | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mikel Vesga · Leganes |
| 17' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 44' | 🟨 | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 67' | 🟨 | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jonathan Silva · Leganes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 205.00 | 266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1615.92 | 1800.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.88 | 1.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| league points | 18.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 28.68 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |