← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 85% | 83% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.89 | value: +26% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 5% | 4% | 18.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 569.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1917.56 | 1597.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.77 | 1.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 24.12 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |