← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 67% | 77% | 1.44 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.32 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 10% | 7% | 9.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 85' | 🟨 | Diego Godín · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Esteban Granero · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 2578.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1897.35 | 1656.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.17 | -65.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.61 | 20.74 |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |