← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 17% | 17% | 5.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 44' | 🟨 | Keko · Valladolid |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 78' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 25 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 21.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1538.27 | 1568.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.58 | -20.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |