← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 56% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 17% | 19% | 5.81 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 20.00 | 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1594.60 | 1596.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.85 | -14.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 19.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.73 | — |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |