← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 36% | 35% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Dimitri Foulquier · Getafe CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Granell · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Flamini · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 203.00 | 841.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1568.49 | 1629.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.98 | 9.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.81 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.64 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -2.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.99 | — |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -2.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |