← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 39% | 38% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 47' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 58' | 🟨 | Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés |
| 87' | 🟨 | Borja Bastón · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 381.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1685.30 | 1615.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.35 | -11.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| league points | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.22 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |