← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 68% | 61% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.81 | value: +7% |
| Girona win | 12% | 17% | 8.33 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Valery Fernández · Girona |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 259.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1722.35 | 1575.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.93 | 25.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.64 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |