← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 75% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 8.10 | value: +23% |
| Levante UD win | 7% | 10% | 13.50 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 25' | 🟨 | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
| 35' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
| 43' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 47' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jason · Levante UD |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 76' | 🟥 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 88' | ⚽ | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 15 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 290.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1589.70 | 1910.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.15 | -5.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.71 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |