← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 3.99 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 19% | 17% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Toño · Levante UD |
| 8' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 9' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 25' | ⚽ | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
| 57' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 65' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Paulo Oliveira · Levante UD |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 82' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 90' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 32 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 1257.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1579.19 | 1588.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.52 | 6.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |