← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 35% | 37% | 2.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.94 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 64' | ⚽ | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 75' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 189.00 | 827.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1611.50 | 1697.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.54 | 14.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -2.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.61 | 27.87 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -2.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |