← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +4% |
| Levante UD win | 33% | 28% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Aritz Aduriz · Athletic Club |
| 40' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 45' | ⚽ | Chema · Levante UD |
| 59' | ⚽ | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 65' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 69' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 75' | 🟥 | Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Markel Susaeta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 277.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1575.56 | 1537.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.84 | -6.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |