← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.38 | fair |
| Girona win | 18% | 16% | 5.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 41' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 72' | 🟨 | Thomas Partey · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Jonas Ramalho · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 89' | 🟨 | Saúl Ñíguez · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 89' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 184.00 | 2558.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1581.13 | 1804.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.67 | -0.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.64 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.99 | 24.01 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |