← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 53% | 43% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.76 | value: +22% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 580.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1609.73 | 1624.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.90 | 17.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.72 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.34 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |