← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 69% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.89 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 11% | 10% | 8.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Antoñito · Valladolid |
| 30' | ⚽ | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aleix Vidal · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Borja · Valladolid |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 238.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1721.42 | 1586.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.89 | 10.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | 1.17 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |