← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 59% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Girona win | 16% | 15% | 6.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 6' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jonas Ramalho · Girona |
| 28' | 🟨 | Carles Planas · Girona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Diego López · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 74' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Borja Iglesias · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Seydou Doumbia · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 11 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 177.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1628.69 | 1560.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.72 | 9.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.84 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.99 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |