← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Huesca win | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Moi Gómez · Huesca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jony · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Deportivo Alavés |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · Huesca |
| 68' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | 🟨 | Damian Musto · Huesca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Deportivo Alavés |
| 74' | 🟨 | Guillermo Maripán · Deportivo Alavés |
| 76' | 🟨 | Carlos Akapo · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days | 345.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1611.78 | 1506.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.81 | -23.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |