← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 43% | 42% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.19 | value: +6% |
| Leganes win | 26% | 25% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Óscar Rodríguez · Leganes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Javier Eraso · Leganes |
| 71' | 🟨 | Daniel Ojeda · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 162.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1564.52 | 1490.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.70 | 7.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.99 | — |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |