← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | value: +3% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jonathan Calleri · Deportivo Alavés |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | ⚽ | Borja Bastón · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 331.00 | 422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1700.21 | 1705.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.66 | -19.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 26.68 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |