← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 24% | 23% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Alejandro Gálvez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Portu · Girona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 60' | 🟨 | Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 61' | ⚽ | Alejandro Gálvez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 72' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Girona |
| 73' | 🟨 | Álex Moreno · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟥 | Anthony Lozano · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1618.67 | 1534.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.28 | -7.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.78 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.44 | 25.32 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |