← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.19 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kiko Olivas · Valladolid |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 63' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 73' | 🟨 | Javi López · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dídac Vila · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 208.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1594.98 | 1627.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.17 | 31.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |