← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 62% | 56% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.13 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 14% | 23% | 6.70 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Antoñito · Valladolid |
| 35' | ⚽ | Antoñito · Valladolid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kiko Olivas · Valladolid |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jordi Masip · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 538.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1601.52 | 1582.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.82 | 20.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.52 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.72 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |